Live cycle tracker
Solar Cycle 25 — Real-Time Progress Tracker
Solar Cycle 25 is the engine behind today's strong HF conditions. This tracker shows where the cycle stands, how NOAA's forecast compares to observed sunspot data, and what that means for real-world band openings.
NOAA Solar Cycle 25 progress
The white line shows observed monthly sunspot number. The blue forecast corridor shows NOAA's current prediction envelope for Cycle 25.
What this means for ham radio
Cycle 25 remains healthy, but the highest HF bands are more selective than during the strongest months of the peak.
When the cycle is strong, the F2 layer supports longer and more frequent openings on 10m and 15m. That is why recent months have produced easy worldwide contacts on the highest HF bands, especially around local midday and grayline.
As the cycle rolls off after the peak window, those top-end openings become more selective. Operators who understand the cycle phase can adjust expectations early instead of being surprised when 10m stops behaving like a daily band.
Records this cycle
Cycle 25 is not just stronger than forecast on paper. It has already produced one of the biggest monthly solar-flux runs of the modern era, the largest X-ray flare of the cycle, and a rare G5 geomagnetic storm that pushed aurora deep into the mid-latitudes.
Aug 24 from NOAA's observed cycle index series.
AR 3664 on May 14, 2024. For operators, this is the benchmark blackout-class flare of Cycle 25.
May 10-12, 2024. The storm hit polar HF hardest and confirmed how violent this cycle can still become.